within the next five to ten years, based on FSO forecasts. In tabling the initiative, the SVP ultimately wants Switzerland’s agreement with the EU on the free movement of people to be terminated – which is what would happen if the government was unable to “negotiate or invoke any exemption or protection clauses” in the event of the threshold being exceeded. The Swiss electorate rejected a proposal to scrap free movement six years ago, with around 57 per cent voting no to the SVP’s “For moderate immigration” initiative in 2020. Yet the anti-immigration SVP managed to win at the ballot box back in 2014, when a narrow majority of voters – 50.3 per cent – narrowly endorsed the “Against mass immigration” initiative. However, the quotas to which foreign workers would have been subject were not introduced, because the government and parliament did not want to risk a breakdown in relations with the EU. The stated alternative was to In tabling the initiative, the SVP ultimately wants an end to free movement between Switzerland and the EU. The 14 June vote is a pivotal test of public sentiment regarding the Swiss-EU bilateral agreements. do more to exploit the potential of Switzerland’s domestic workforce. Sensitive juncture in Swiss-EU relations The SVP’s latest initiative once again endangers Switzerland’s bilateral agreements with the EU, says the government. Terminating the agreement on free movement would also invalidate the other treaties, while Swiss living in the EU could face negative consequences if their right of residence is tied to free movement. The Federal Council and a majority in parliament as well as industry groups and trade unions reject the “radical” initiative, which, its opponents say, jeopardises jobs and prosperity in Switzerland. The government concedes that immigration and a growing population pose “challenges” for Switzerland – not least on the housing market, which is why additional public money has been earmarked for the construction of affordable homes. The 14 June vote comes at a sensitive juncture in Swiss-EU relations. This March, the Federal Council and the European Commission put pen to paper on a new package of agreements that were agreed by both sides after protracted talks (see “Swiss Review” 2/2025). This package updates and expands the existing bilateral treaties. It also includes a safeguard clause that will allow Switzerland to limit immigration if “serious economic or social problems” arise. Details of when and how this clause would be triggered are still unclear and likely to be up for debate. Parliament still has to ratify the new treaties, after which voters are expected to give their verdict in 2028. Switzerland is currently home to more than nine million people, two thirds of whom live in the densely populated Central Plateau region. Pictured right: View of Zurich from Uetliberg hill. Photo: Keystone Swiss Review / April 2026 / No. 2 5
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